New Jersey Real Estate Report

Welcome to another edition of Comp Killer!

Bergen is done, next up will be Morris followed by Essex. Comp killers below are from sales that closed in June.

Bergen County Comp Killers, June 1st thru 30th.

83 Elmwood Ave, Allendale NJ
Purchased: 5/22/2006
Purchase Price: $630,000
MLS# 2912125
Listed: 5/1/2008
List Price: $669,000
Sold: 6/24/2009
Sale Price: $599,000
5% under 2006 sales price

98 Bonnie Way, Allendale NJ
Purchased: 8/1/2006
Purchase Price: $965,000
MLS# 2839728
Listed: 6/13/2008
List Price: $969,000
Sold: 6/25/2009
Sale Price: $720,000
25% under 2006 sales price

500 Highridge Ave, Cliffside Park NJ
Purchased: 4/5/2006
Purchase Price: $650,000
MLS# 2915007
Listed: 6/12/2007
List Price: $650,000
Sold: 6/2/2009
Sale Price: $319,000
51% under 2006 sales price

27 Jane Street, Closter NJ
Purchased: 7/9/2004
Purchase Price: $439,000
MLS# 2848048
Listed: 6/22/2006
List Price: $529,000
Sold: 6/17/2009
Sale Price: $250,000
43% under 2004 sales price

200 High Street, Closter NJ
Purchased: 5/30/2006
Purchase Price: $485,000
MLS# 2905219
Listed: 2/23/2006
List Price: $410,000
Sold: 6/12/2009
Sale Price: $375,000
23% under 2006 sales price
13% under 2004 sales price ($430,000)

96 Stewart St, Demarest NJ
Purchased: 12/9/2005
Purchase Price: $710,000
MLS# 2846372
Listed: 10/18/2008
List Price: $629,000
Sold: 6/19/2009
Sale Price: $525,000
26% under 2005 sales price

1055 River Rd 302, Edgewater NJ
Purchased: 5/2/2005
Purchase Price: $315,000
MLS# 2909570
Listed: 9/2/2008
List Price: $360,000
Sold: 6/9/2009
Sale Price: $295,000
6% under 2005 sales price

303 Stockton Ct, Edgewater NJ
Purchased: 5/23/2005
Purchase Price: $465,000
MLS# 2907857
Listed: 2/19/2009
List Price: $399,000
Sold: 6/3/2009
Sale Price: $399,000
14% under 2005 sales price

724 Jane Dr, Franklin Lakes NJ
Purchased: 8/27/2002
Purchase Price: $1,300,000
MLS# 2830616
Listed: 9/19/2007
List Price: $1,750,000
Sold: 6/24/2009
Sale Price: $1,155,000
11% under 2002 sales price!!!

121 Ramapo Valley Rd, Mahwah NJ
Purchased: 8/19/2004
Purchase Price: $350,000
MLS# 2901476
Listed: 10/2/2008
List Price: $424,900
Sold: 6/15/2009
Sale Price: $340,000
3% under 2004 sales price

811 Maywood Ave, Maywood NJ
Purchased: 5/3/2005
Purchase Price: $373,000
MLS# 2916795
Listed: 4/15/2009
List Price: $359,900
Sold: 6/29/2009
Sale Price: $359,000
4% under 2005 sales price

7 Boulder Run, Oakland NJ
Purchased: 4/12/2004
Purchase Price: $689,000
MLS# 2910950
Listed: 3/11/2008
List Price: $774,000
Sold: 6/3/2009
Sale Price: $642,000
7% under 2004 sales price

3 Woods End, Oakland NJ
Purchased: 8/16/2004
Purchase Price: $760,000
MLS# 2845345
Listed: 10/12/2008
List Price: $819,000
Sold: 6/1/2009
Sale Price: $710,000
7% under 2004 sales price

159 Leach Ave, Park Ridge NJ
Purchased: 6/30/2005
Purchase Price: $526,000
MLS# 2917058
Listed: 4/16/2009
List Price: $435,000
Sold: 6/10/2009
Sale Price: $435,000
17% under 2005 sales price

55 Sherwood Dr, Ramsey NJ
Purchased: 4/20/2006
Purchase Price: $490,000
MLS# 2852774
Listed: 7/1/2006
List Price: $539,900
Sold: 6/30/2009
Sale Price: $469,500
4% under 2006 sales price
(Huge renovation, new kitchen, baths, etc)

434 Bogert Ave, Ridgewood NJ
Purchased: 6/13/2007
Purchase Price: $540,000
MLS# 2909559
Listed: 3/12/2008
List Price: $564,500
Sold: 6/26/2009
Sale Price: $459,000
15% under 2007 sales price

231 Jeffer St, Ridgewood NJ
Purchased: 7/29/2004
Purchase Price: $587,000
MLS# 2912477
Listed: 3/19/2009
List Price: $599,000
Sold: 6/29/2009
Sale Price: $575,000
2% under 2004 sales price

47 Walthery Ave, Ridgewood NJ
Purchased: 9/30/2004
Purchase Price: $679,000
MLS# 2909593
Listed: 4/23/2008
List Price: $799,000
Sold: 6/25/2009
Sale Price: $615,000
9% under 2004 sales price

619 Westbrook Rd, Ridgewood NJ
Purchased: 8/18/2003
Purchase Price: $732,500
MLS# 2842214
Listed: 4/17/2008
List Price: $899,000
Sold: 6/30/2009
Sale Price: $699,000
5% under 2003 sales price

265 Monroe Ave, River Edge NJ
Purchased: 8/2/2005
Purchase Price: $500,000
MLS# 2843717
Listed: 8/15/2006
List Price: $524,902
Sold: 6/9/2009
Sale Price: $395,000
21% under 2005 sales price

195 Valley Rd, River Edge NJ
Purchased: 2/4/2008
Purchase Price: $815,000
MLS# 2918594
Listed: 4/27/2009
List Price: $799,000
Sold: 6/30/2009
Sale Price: $760,000
7% under 2008 sales price

222 Fairview Ave, Rutherford NJ
Purchased: 9/11/2006
Purchase Price: $650,000
MLS# 2917133
Listed: 4/10/2008
List Price: $720,000
Sold: 6/16/2009
Sale Price: $531,000
18% under 2006 sales price

13 Douglas St, Waldwick NJ
Purchased: 11/24/2004
Purchase Price: $432,500
MLS# 2913872
Listed: 2/4/2008
List Price: $470,000
Sold: 6/30/2009
Sale Price: $417,000
4% under 2004 sales price

6 Sherman Ave, Waldwick NJ
Purchased: 5/31/2005
Purchase Price: $595,000
MLS# 2901551
Listed: 1/10/2009
List Price: $595,000
Sold: 6/26/2009
Sale Price: $535,000
10% under 2005 sales price

1 Idalane St, Waldwick NJ
Purchased: 7/13/2006
Purchase Price: $737,000
MLS# 2911692
Listed: 2/4/2008
List Price: $815,000
Sold: 6/25/2009
Sale Price: $575,000
22% under 2006 sales price

675 Calvin St, Washington Twp NJ
Purchased: 9/5/2008
Purchase Price: $635,000
MLS# 2921475
Listed: 5/12/2009
List Price: $609,000
Sold: 6/29/2009
Sale Price: $615,600
3% under 2008 sales price

517 Richard Pl, Wyckoff NJ
Purchased: 11/7/2003
Purchase Price: $656,000
MLS# 2905520
Listed: 2/5/2009
List Price: $699,900
Sold: 6/29/2009
Sale Price: $653,000
Under the 2003 sales price

(Karen Weaver from Deutsche Bank provided a similar forecast a little over two weeks ago.)

From CNBC:

US Home Prices Seen Falling 40% Overall: Analyst

U.S. housing prices will fall by a double-digit percentage from already beaten-down levels, resulting in an overall 40 percent plunge by the time foreclosures peak in the second half of 2010, Barclays Capital economist Michelle Meyer said.

Meyer issued her forecast two days after the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes showed for April an 18.1 percent year-to-year decline, compared with 18.7 percent in March, in the rate of home price declines in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas.

The indexes have tracked the prices of U.S. single-family homes since 1987.

“While the early signs of improvement are in place for housing, the market will likely remain out of balance for some time, given the flood of foreclosures,” Meyer wrote.

“Home prices are likely to continue to fall, albeit at a slowing pace, even after the economy technically emerges from the recession.” Home prices have fallen 32.6 percent from their peak three years ago, S&P/Case-Shiller said.

On that basis, they would need to fall another 11 percent for an overall 40 percent peak-to-trough decline. Further declines could imperil metropolitan areas that have yet to experience the worst of the nation’s housing slump.

According to S&P/Case-Shiller, New York was the only major market to have above-average, month-over-month housing price declines in both March and April and also have a below-average decline for the year ended in April.

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Foreclosures to Peak in Late 2010, Meyer Says

U.S. foreclosures will peak in the second half of 2010 and home prices will continue to decline through the end of that year, according to Barclays Capital.

“Home prices are likely to continue to fall, albeit at a slowing pace, even after the economy technically emerges from the recession,” Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York, said in a report today. Prices may drop another 7 percent, she said, based on the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 U.S. cities.

The three-year-old housing slump has slashed U.S. home prices 33 percent since their July 2006 peak, according to S&P/Case-Shiller. Prospective buyers are constrained by rising mortgage rates, the highest unemployment since 1983 and the longest recession of the post-World War II era.

U.S. homeowners trying to sell are competing with a glut of discounted foreclosures. It would take about 9.6 months to sell the nation’s 3.8 million unsold homes at the current sales pace, according to the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors.

From Bloomberg:

Manhattan Apartment Prices Drop as Lehman Effect Hits Home

Manhattan apartment prices dropped for the first time since 2002 in the second quarter as the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. caught up to property owners in the nation’s most expensive urban market.

The median price fell 18.5 percent from a year earlier to $835,700, New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said today. The number of sales plunged by half, the most since Miller Samuel began keeping data in 1989.

“The standstill that existed after Lehman Brothers has been broken, and it was the sellers that cried ‘Uncle,’” Pamela Liebman, chief executive officer of New York-based property broker the Corcoran Group, said in an interview.

Values are falling broadly in Manhattan for the first time in the almost four-year U.S. housing recession, with declines now seen in co-operatives and condominiums of every size and price. Private-sector employment in the city dropped by 91,200 jobs, or 2.8 percent in the 12 months through May as Wall Street losses and asset writedowns topped $1.4 trillion.

The price of studio apartments declined 16 percent from a year ago to a median of $405,000, according to Miller Samuel. One-bedrooms dropped 17 percent to $650,000 and two-bedrooms fell 23 percent to $1.27 million. Three-bedroom units fell 37 percent to $2.35 million and four-bedrooms plummeted 47 percent to a median of $3.92 million.

The Miller Samuel-Prudential data reflect for the first time what sellers have known for at least six months: The way to lure a buyer in the current market is to cut your price.
…
About 32 percent of second-quarter listings included discounts from the original asking price, according to StreetEasy.com, a Web site that gathers Manhattan property listings from brokers. The deepest concessions were on Central Park South and in the Financial District, where list prices were pared by an average of 10 percent.

“The sellers who want to sell are reducing their prices,” Liebman said. “The ones that aren’t, are either sitting on them overpriced or waiting for another day.”

From the Record:

20% of construction jobs vanish

One of every five construction jobs in Bergen, Passaic and Hudson counties disappeared over the past year, as building activity plummeted in the face of a recession and housing bust, federal labor officials said Wednesday.

The 21 percent drop in North Jersey construction jobs from May 2008 to May 2009 — from 32,700 to 25,800 — was a record in the 19 years that the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics has been keeping track, according to Martin Kohli, an economist with the BLS’s New York office.

“The housing bubble burst sooner in other parts of the country than it did here, but it seems to have come with a vengeance to Bergen, Passaic and Hudson,” Kohli said.

Even as housing construction nationwide slowed dramatically, building continued at a healthy pace in Bergen and Hudson counties until mid-2008, especially along the Hudson River waterfront. But last summer, construction fell off there as well.

Overall, Bergen, Passaic and Hudson employment shrank by 26,200 jobs, or 2.9 percent, to 884,300 jobs in May 2009. Aside from the construction losses, Bergen, Passaic also saw substantial job cuts in professional and business services, information and financial activities. The decades-long loss of factory jobs also continued.
…
The overall New York metropolitan area, including North Jersey, lost almost 233,000 jobs — 2.7 percent of the total — from May 2008 to May 2009.

While the job losses were painful, they were less severe than the nationwide employment contraction of 4 percent. In the region as a whole, the biggest job losses came in construction and manufacturing.

The finance sector also lost jobs, but not as many as expected, Kohli said. Financial employment declined by 4.7 percent in the New York metropolitan area as a whole, and 5.7 percent in Bergen, Passaic and Hudson.

“Last fall, we had an unprecedented financial crisis,” Kohli said. “We expected to see the bottom fall out of financial employment in the area.”

The New Jersey Home Price Index Tracker has been updated to include:
* April S&P Case Shiller (Aggregate, Tiered, Condo)

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

S&P Case Shiller NY Metro Commutable Area Home Price Index

Low Tier (Under $283721) - Peaked in October 2006 and is down 24.5% from peak

Mid Tier ($283721 - $416284) - Peaked in September 2006 and is down 22.42% from peak

High Tier (Over $416284) - Peaked in June 2006 and is down 17.39% from peak

Aggregate (Overall Market) - Peaked in June 2006 and is down 21.08% from peak

Condo-Only Index - Peaked in February 2006 and is down 12.85% from peak

NY Metro Area Aggregate Year over Year Changes

Apr 08 -7.98%
May 08 -7.74%
Jun 08 -7.04%
Jul 08 -7.04%
Aug 08 -6.61%
Sep 08 -7.13%
Oct 08 -7.71%
Nov 08 -8.72%
Dec 08 -9.17%
Jan 09 -9.74%
Feb 09-10.33%
Mar 09 -11.85%
Apr 09 -12.53%

The NY Metro Area saw price declines continue to accelerate to the fastest pace yet this cycle.

Bonus Graphs from Veto and Kettle:

(click to enlarge)

More can be found here: http://tinyurl.com/nsgq2f

Due out at 9am this morning, post will be updated as news/info becomes available.

From Bloomberg:

Home-Price Declines in 20 U.S. Cities Eased in April

Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas fell in April at a slower pace than forecast, a sign the plunge in real-estate values is abating.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index decreased 18.1 percent from a year earlier following an 18.7 percent drop in March. The measure declined 19 percent in January, the most since the data began in 2001.

Price declines are likely to keep moderating as demand steadies and distressed properties account for a smaller share of transactions. Still, the highest jobless rate in 25 years is contributing to record foreclosures, which are likely to keep depressing values for months to come even as home sales steady.

“It is looking a little bit better,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. “The largest declines are probably past. When prices stop falling the erosion in household wealth will come to an end.”

Economists forecast the index would drop 18.6 percent, according to the estimates of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Estimates ranged from drops of 17.7 percent to 19.4 percent.

From MarketWatch:

U.S. home prices down 18.1% in past year

U.S. home prices were down 18.1% in the year ended April, according to the national Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday. On a month-to-month basis, prices in 20 selected cities fell 0.6% in April, with declines in 11 cities. Still, the overall pace of decline slowed in April, said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee for Standard & Poor’s, which compiles the Case-Shiller index. “Every metro area, except for Charlotte, recorded an improvement in monthly returns over March,” Blitzer said. “While one month’s data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun, it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions.”

From the WSJ:

Home Prices Drop at Slower Pace

U.S. home prices continued their multiyear tumble in April, according to the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes, although the indexes showed their third-straight month of slightly smaller declines.

Seventeen of 20 major metropolitan areas posted price declines of more than 10% from a year earlier, with the Sun Belt continuing to be hit hardest. Nationally, home prices are at levels similar to the middle of 2003.

From the AP:

Home prices post 18.1 percent annual drop in April

A key housing index shows a clear trend that home price declines are moderating.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday showed home prices in 20 major cities tumbled by 18.1 percent from April 2008. The 10-city index fell 18 percent from the year before.

April, however, marked the third straight month both indexes didn’t set record price declines. And yearly losses in 13 metros improved compared to March.

Still, the 20-city index is off almost 33 percent from its peak in the second quarter of 2006, and the 10-city has dropped by almost 34 percent, which means home values are now around 2003-levels.

From the Star Ledger:

Bad weather, bad economy bring down shore rentals

Is it the weather or the economy keeping Jersey Shore rentals vacant? Both have been dreary, but only one has a shot of turning around within 24 hours.

Homeowners hope the sun will finally show up for good and prompt the untanned masses to pick up their phones and look for last-minute deals — of which there are plenty.

“Some owners are saying, ‘I still have Fourth of July open,’ and that was never the case before,” said Maria Kirk, owner of shoresummerrentals.com which lists rentals. “Most of my owners are really happy, saying they’re really booked, but some have a couple weeks left, and they’re offering specials.”

With vacationers across America committing ever-later to travel arrangements, real estate agents and tourism officials say it’s still too early to tell whether the summer business season will be as washed out as the beach was in June. To try to fill in those few empty weeks, owners are willing to negotiate or are even starting out at lower rental rates.

Jimmy Brusca is offering a $100 discount off his weekly rate of $1,690 for a house in Lavallette to get that last week in August wrapped up.

“Usually we’re booked by March,” he said. “It’s already June.”

After a strong spring rental market, things have cooled off instead of heated up, said Barbara Shirvanian, the owner of Shore Homes in Monmouth Beach. She worries some properties have reached the point of no return.

“The leftovers won’t get rented,” she said. “It will be more difficult.”
…
The doleful housing market has pushed would-be sellers to put their homes up for rent, agents say.

Shirvanian, of Shore Homes, said a mansion for sale in Monmouth Beach had sat on the market for a year while the asking price dropped from $3.4 million to $2.9 million. A deal fell apart in April, so Shirvanian rented furniture and got professionals from Hoboken in for the summer.

She shaved $10,000 off the $60,000 price the place could have pulled in, hoping the renters will want to become owners. “That’s the idea,” she said.

Jim Flynn says the property he’s owned in Long Beach Island since 1998 is off 30 percent from most summers, but he is optimistic.

“When the weather gets sunnier, which it probably will be this weekend, people will say, ‘Gee, I really want to get to the beach,’ ” Flynn said.

From CNBC:

Five Reasons Housing Market Still Hasn’t Recovered Yet

What happened to the housing recovery?

Despite hopes that the market would begin showing signs of life this spring, the latest housing data suggests otherwise. Instead, the sector remains stubbornly moribund—trapped in a spiral of declining prices, increasing mortgage rates, unemployment and several unforeseen factors.

And with many experts believing that a real estate rebound is critical for the overall economy to recover, patience with housing is beginning to wear thin.

“We’re dealing with a problem that probably took us eight years to get into and expecting to get out of it in eight minutes, and it’s just not going to happen,” says Rick Sharga, analyst for RealtyTrac, which follows real estate trends. “The frustration might be more self-induced or self-inflicted than necessarily something the real world would create.”

Experts cite various reasons for the continuing problems with housing and say it’s unrealistic to expect a full recovery anytime soon.

Economists have all been pretty consistent in that they expect the housing market to bottom out at the end of this year or the beginning of next year,” Sharga adds. “It’s not going to be a rapid recovery.”

Experts break housing’s problems into five key areas.

1) Unemployment
…
2) Credit Availability
…
3) Price Pressures
…
4) Appraisals
…
5) Short Sales

I don’t care if you have plans, cancel them.

What: GTG/Meet-up/Whatever
When: Friday June 26th, 7:30ish (Tonight!)
Where: Fitzgerald’s 1928 http://www.fitzgeralds1928.com
13 Herman Street (off Bloomfield Ave)
Glen Ridge, NJ 07028
Google Maps Link

For drivers, this is right off exit 148 on the Parkway.
For those looking for mass transit, Fitzgeralds is 2 blocks away from the Glen Ridge Station on the Montclair Boonton Line.

—————————-

From the Press of Atlantic City:

Age-restricted communities popular, but still a bust in N.J.

Linda Telli needed some convincing when her husband, Ron, first suggested uprooting their lives in Bergen County to retire at the Four Seasons at Historic Smithville, an age-restricted community in Galloway Township.

While Ron liked the idea of being around people their age, Linda preferred being closer to New York City and their family. A lower cost of living in Atlantic County, however, became a major selling point. The couple bought property at the Four Seasons nearly four years ago.

“Our taxes are down about $1,500 to $2,000,” said Ron, 67.

As for Linda, “Living here is like camp for adults,” said the 60-year-old.

The popularity of adult retirement communities with the baby boomer set has grown through much of the decade, although modestly.
…
But housing market expert Jeffrey Otteau says boomers may not be so quick to flood those communities now - at least not in New Jersey.

For one, retirees here are choosing to move to lower-cost states, leaving a glut of age-restricted housing in the Garden State equivalent to a 16-year supply, said Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group, a real estate research and appraisal firm in East Brunswick.

Legislation now is moving through Trenton that would allow developers to petition municipalities to remove age restrictions on already approved projects, instead favoring more affordable housing.

Otteau added that because of the economic meltdown, seniors may decide to save money by simply “aging in place.” So instead of retiring to an age-restricted community, they’ll retire in their current home.

The building of age-restricted housing, however, still is appealing to many towns: Seniors contribute to the local tax base without increasing school enrollment.

From CNBC:

Rebound In Housing Hampered By Slowdown in ‘Short Sales’

When Vasco and Mrjama Lukic’s American housing dream turned into a nightmare, they managed to escape through a long and complicated process known as a “short sale.”

The Yugoslavian-born couple and their sons built a home in West Orange, N.J., where they hoped to settle and enjoy the fruits of many hard hours of labor.

But when their son Goren was hurt in an automobile crash two years ago, he could no longer help his parents with the mortgage payments on the house. The couple quickly got behind on their mortgage—more than a year at one point.

With no other options, they turned to a short sale—in which the lender agrees to take less than the value of the mortgage to avoid the more onerous foreclosure process. For the Lukics, it was a long and emotional road that finally ended on Thursday, when they sold their home for less than half the original asking price.

“I couldn’t work anymore. They had to do everything on their own and they were struggling,” Goren Lukic said as he drove his parents to the closing on their home. “We called up the bank and said, ‘We can’t afford the house anymore, can you guys take it?’ They were like, ‘Why not?’”

Short sales, which have taken off in the past year, have become a way out for some Americans in trouble with their mortgage. But just as the concept is gaining favor, it is already running into problems—another reason why the housing recovery is taking longer than many had hoped.

Real estate industry experts say banks are becoming more reluctant to agree to short sales, in part because the change in mark-to-market accounting rules gives them less incentive to take less than the mortgage is worth. As a result, they say, banks are holding out for what Realtors say are unrealistic offers.

“Every Realtor I talk to tells the same sort of horror story making a buy offer,” says Rick Shargo, vice president of marketing at RealtyTrac, which follows housing trends. “Interminable delays of six weeks to three months are not uncommon, or banks rejecting a 20 percent discount at short-sale only to ultimately take the property back and market it at 40 or 50 percent lower.”

For their part, bankers say prospective buyers are trying to take advantage of the situation by offering prices that are too far below market value.
…
Indeed, not all of the accounts regarding short sales are horror stories.

Some, like the Lukics, were just happy to be able to be able to dump the property and get on with their lives. After putting the house on the market initially at a price that would help them recoup their investment, the family finally realized they needed to change their thinking.

“They weren’t able to sell it because they wanted too much money for it,” said Joel Zeichner, an agent with Jordan Baris Realtors in West Orange, which represented the family. “We convinced them they needed to come up with a more aggressive price.”

Don’t miss the meet-up tomorrow!

When: Friday June 26th, 7:30ish
Where: Fitzgerald’s 1928 http://www.fitzgeralds1928.com
13 Herman Street (off Bloomfield Ave)
Glen Ridge, NJ 07028
Google Maps Link

For drivers, this is right off exit 148 on the Parkway.
For those looking for mass transit, Fitzgeralds is 2 blocks away from the Glen Ridge Station on the Montclair Boonton Line.

—————————-

From the Huffington Post:

Roiling On The Rivers Of Real Estate

To every analyst, forecaster, and economist predicting they see the bottom of the real estate market, I respond as Vinnie Barbarino might: “Where? Where?” I know the bottom is there–we all do– but much like in a polluted riverbed, it is hard to spot and treacherous to reach.

More than three years ago, I saw the banks of the NY metro housing market erode from my vantage point as an attorney wading in its waters. I saw serial refinancers, living on their equity, and watched repayment-challenged buyers receive mortgages as easily as frogs catch flies. Appraisers inflated values in far from desirable areas, encouraging investors to leave multiple homes vacant while they slapped on a coat of paint and re-faced the kitchen cabinets before cashing out from the next no money down speculators.

Then the more-more-more river turned stagnant; occasionally, like a skipping stone, a transaction did skitter along, only to sink with an inglorious “thud.” In early spring, multiple pebbles started being flung furiously at the water, causing expert analysts to calibrate and celebrate the quantity of rocks, while ignoring the clunks that frequently still follow. The bottom must be close, they espouse: look at the volume of activity in the real estate market!

I’m still deep in the real estate waters, loudly hearing the sounds of sinking stones while those in the lifeguard towers think they hear surging surf. As the summer of 2009 begins, the latest wave of “can you help me?” calls I answer are no longer primarily from “sub-prime” borrowers. I’ve either helped them, or been unable to, and they’ve moved on. Nowadays the borrowers in a boatload of trouble and months behind in their mortgages formerly had better-than-decent credit, good jobs, and 20% or more money to put down (or a great deal of equity in their homes).

Some buyers, sensing blood in the waters, want houses upgraded and improved before they close. Sellers without the funds to accommodate these demands are deemed “unrealistic” as the buyers move on. Yesterday’s market was significantly overpriced, but today’s has very little negotiation, with a significant number of buyers regressing to their toddler years to get what they want. There’s something about a population of homeowners who came into title via temper tantrums that cannot bode well for smooth sailing back to a stable real estate market.

I also come across sellers who remind me of cartoon character grandfathers, preferring to live in “the good old days” when their homes were worth 15-20-25% more. Those days are gone, grandpa–it’s time to sell the ranch for whatever you can realistically get if you want to move on.
…
There’s definitely a bottom to the real estate market. But to finish with my water metaphors, the bottom is not clearly visible through yesterday’s floating wreckage and today’s murky transactions. We need to save the drowners, repel the sharks, and raise the level of the bottom feeders. Only then will we be able to plot a safe course home.

From the AP/APP:

Northeast home sales, prices drop in May

Home sales in the Northeast declined more than 13 percent in May from year-ago levels, the worst showing in the country, as the specter of job losses loomed over the region.

The median sales price in the Northeast dropped almost 13 percent to $243,600, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

Nationally, sales of existing homes tumbled 6.6 percent in May from the previous year, without adjusting for seasonal factors. The U.S. median sales price slid almost 17 percent to $173,000.

But James Diffley, group managing director of IHS Global Insight’s regional services group, focused more on the 7.6 month-to-month sales gain in the Northeast.

“The numbers are giving some comfort that we’re at the bottom,” Diffley said. “We have a more optimistic view than just a few months ago.”

In fact, all nine major Northeast cities tracked in the Associated Press-Re/Max Monthly Housing Report showed monthly gains in home sales. But compared to last May, sales were down across the board with with seven metro areas recording double-digit declines.
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Jitters are still running high in the suburbs of New York, where sales fell by 30 percent, the worst decline in the region. Excluding New York City, the median price in the area fell almost 8 percent to $388,000 as job losses on Wall Street rippled through the local economy.

Hat tip to Debbie from over at Baristanet for bringing this to my attention!

From Realogy:

NRT Combines its two New Jersey Real Estate Brokerage Companies into Single Organization

NRT LLC, the nation’s largest residential real estate brokerage company, today announced the merger of the operations of its two local operating companies based in New Jersey – Burgdorff Realtors ERA and Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in New Jersey & Rockland County, N.Y. The newly combined company will operate under the Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage banner, further solidifying its market presence with a total of 63 offices and over 3,700 sales associates in the region.

“There was a time when operating both companies independent of each other in the same market made good business sense, but as the marketplace continues to evolve, this unification allows sales associates from both companies to better leverage their regional and national strength for the benefit of our customers,” said Bruce Zipf, president and CEO of NRT LLC, parent company of both Burgdorff ERA and Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. “We are committed to making this a smooth transition for our sales associates and our clients.”

NRT is assisting more than 600 current Burgdorff sales associates make the transition to Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in the coming days. As a result of the merger, seven of the 13 Burgdorff offices will be rebranded and operate as Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, and six Burgdorff offices will be consolidated into existing Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage locations in the same communities. One Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage office will be closed and merged into an existing company location in the same community.

Mark your calendars, the long awaited GTG

When: Friday June 26th, 7:30ish

Location: Fitzgerald’s 1928 http://www.fitzgeralds1928.com
13 Herman Street (off Bloomfield Ave)
Glen Ridge, NJ 07028
Google Maps Link

For drivers, this is right off exit 148 on the Parkway.
For those looking for mass transit, Fitzgeralds is 2 blocks away from the Glen Ridge Station on the Montclair Boonton Line.

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From the Record:

Report: Housing market suffered “massive shock”

The housing market has suffered a “massive shock” and faces a difficult recovery in the face of job losses, foreclosures and tight credit, according to a report released today by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.

“It’s difficult to overstate the challenges in the housing market today,” said Nicholas Retsinas, director of the center, who presented the annual State of the Nation’s Housing report in New York City. “While there are some positive signs in the marketplace, the macroeconomic forces are still overwhelmingly negative.”

The good news is that the bursting of the housing bubble has made real estate more affordable. And, looking over the next 10 years, the huge “echo boomer” generation will soon start establishing their own households in large numbers, increasing demand for homes.

In North Jersey and the rest of the New York metropolitan area, homes have held their value better than in many regions of the nation as the housing bubble burst over the past several years. But price declines in the New York area have begun to accelerate, partly as a result of job cuts in financial services, a major economic engine for the region.

Eric Belsky, executive director of the housing center, said the home price declines are likely to continue in the area for some time — though they will not drop as much as in areas such as Florida, Nevada, Arizona and California, where developers overbuilt during the housing boom. Because this area is already largely developed, and state and local governments tightly regulate construction, builders did not overbuild in North Jersey.

From the Record:

Buying smart is all in the timing

After two years of home shopping — and one canceled deal — MaryAnn and Bryan Rust bought their first house, a three-bedroom Maywood ranch, this month. They were motivated by lower home values, inexpensive mortgage money and an $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers.

“Once we had the $8,000 in tax credits, that was the deal sealer,” said Bryan Rust, a 31-year-old electrician. While it’s not a huge amount of money, the tax credit will give them a little cushion against the cost of unexpected repairs, he said.

“Knowing we have at least an $8,000 credit is putting us ahead of the game,” Rust said.

The tax credit, which went into effect this year in an effort to jump-start a glum housing market, has apparently brought some first-timers into the housing market.

Certainly, home sales activity is still down from a year ago. A rising unemployment rate — now above 9 percent nationwide — means that many people are out of work and in no position to take on a mortgage or are worried about losing their jobs.

Moreover, many economists and housing analysts expect home prices to drop further, and many potential buyers are waiting for bigger bargains.

Still, first-timers comprise close to half of all buyers, up from the typical 40 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors. North Jersey Realtors agree that the starter-home market is much more active than the luxury market.
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The Rusts first ventured into the real estate market in 2007 as the volume of home sales was starting to fall after the housing boom. Prices were still significantly higher than they are now. The Rusts signed a contract to buy a Ringwood house for almost $400,000, but backed out when a home inspection turned up serious roof problems.

They watched as that house later sold for $50,000 less.

“I felt like things were kind of making a turn south,” Rust said. “My wife and I decided to wait and see what the market does. Things started to come down. Houses sat on the market for a long time. A lot of the houses we saw two years ago are still on the market to this day.”

The couple used that time to pay down debt and save a bigger down payment. Then, as prices and mortgage rates dropped over the past eight months — and the federal tax credit kicked in — the Rusts felt it might be time to jump back in.
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Watching home prices drop over the past two years, the Rusts sometimes wonder if they will fall further and lead them to regret buying now.

“That’s a risk we’re going to have to take,” Bryan Rust said. “When are you ever going to have the perfect time? We felt this was the best time to make the move.”